← All selected work
01

Commercial analytics / operations

Turning hardware complexity into profitable unit economics

A recursive bill-of-materials and planning system made processing complexity measurable, established five contract pricing tiers, and connected weekly labor to the actual work ahead.

5

agreed complexity tiers

+/-10%

typical weekly target range

4,000+

assets processed daily

300+

floor workforce at scale

Environment

A reverse-logistics operation processed end-of-life infrastructure for a global hyperscale cloud provider. Incoming server racks were received, demanufactured, cleared of data-bearing media, and dispositioned into downstream channels.

Constraint

The original contract paid one rate per completed unit even though hardware configurations required materially different labor and processing time. Low-complexity work could be profitable; high-complexity work pushed the same operation into negative margins.

01

Rolling four-week forecast

02

Recursive bill of materials

03

Processing-time model

04

Complexity tier

05

Labor + capacity plan

06

Schedule + margin forecast

01

Make the work measurable

A recursive bill of materials decomposed each rack into servers, switches, storage equipment, chassis configurations, and internal components. Time studies established expected processing effort by component and configuration.

Those estimates rolled into an expected processing time for each host asset and rack, making it possible to compare incoming inventory against a known complexity baseline instead of treating every unit as economically equal.

02

Change the commercial model

The client built an independent complexity model. Once both sides confirmed their calculations were not materially different, they agreed to a contract addendum with five complexity tiers based on the expected distribution of hardware configurations.

Paul established the analytical case and tier boundaries. Commercial stakeholders set the final rates, restoring the operation from negative margins toward, and at times above, its contracted 20% margin expectation.

03

Close the planning loop

The model became the input to weekly production planning. Forecast volume and complexity drove required labor; available labor and complexity constrained achievable throughput; all three informed expected margin and facility capacity.

When a revised client forecast arrived in S3, Fabric refreshed the models, schedule, staffing requirements, economic scenarios, Power BI reporting, and weekly client response. Actuals were continuously backtested against the plan and coefficients were retuned as the work changed.

04

Operate at changing scale

The operation grew from launch to more than 300 floor employees, processed more than 4,000 servers and switches per day, and handled as many as 1,000 racks per week.

The same planning discipline supported a 100-person workforce increase within a month and later client volume reductions exceeding 80%, replacing anecdotal staffing requests with quantified weekly requirements.

Paul's ownership

Paul independently designed, built, validated, deployed, and maintained the complexity models, production-planning workflows, automated P&L, and supporting Fabric systems. Client engineering and data counterparts independently modeled complexity before both sides reconciled their methods.

Capabilities

  • + Unit economics
  • + Production planning
  • + Forecasting
  • + Optimization
  • + Executive analytics
  • + Commercial modeling

Selected stack

  • + Microsoft Fabric
  • + Python
  • + PySpark
  • + Power BI
  • + S3
  • + Regression
  • + Monte Carlo
  • + Time series

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